Knowing The World

The case for a Republican clean sweep in the 2022 midterms

The brutal reality of political risk analysis is that you can never rest on your laurels. However good your predictive call record, there are always more elections to come and more geostrategic risks and opportunities to make sense of. Much as is true with sports, even winning a political risk analytical “championship” just means everyone … Continue reading The case for a Republican clean sweep in the 2022 midterms

Macron and the French establishment are safe… for now

As ever, French President Emmanuel Macron’s hero, Charles de Gaulle, put it perfectly. The imposing founder of the Fifth Republic caustically encapsulated the problem with ruling his perpetually turbulent nation when he said: “How can you govern a country that has 246 different kinds of cheese?” After the French parliamentary elections of June 12 and … Continue reading Macron and the French establishment are safe… for now

Biden’s bizarre presidency limps toward electoral shellacking

As Richard Adams, the author of the beloved children’s book Watership Down, put it: “Bunnies … are like human beings in many ways.” This quotation popped into my head last week during the latest bizarre episode in the increasingly bizarre presidency of Joe Biden. Fulfilling the ceremonial side of his job —the president is both … Continue reading Biden’s bizarre presidency limps toward electoral shellacking

Putin’s mistakes birth a new world order

There is little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s miscalculations have birthed a new world order. At the strategic level, the Russian President is guilty of three fatal strategic errors. First, his battle plan for invading Ukraine was far too byzantine, a fussy three-pronged assault that quickly bogged down partly as a result of this … Continue reading Putin’s mistakes birth a new world order

Putin’s war casts a bright, cold light on a new geopolitical era

Crises clarify, and none more so than the tragedy of war. Wars sometimes directly change the geopolitical trajectory of the world. But they always, as a bolt of lightning illuminating the darkness, make clear the geostrategic landscape around us. Crises clarify, and none more so than the tragedy of war. Wars sometimes directly change the … Continue reading Putin’s war casts a bright, cold light on a new geopolitical era

Russia’s Ukraine war is China’s mixed blessing

There has always been one giant intellectual problem with a fully-fledged Sino-Russian revisionist alliance coming to challenge the present Western-dominated world; someone would have to be Batman and someone would have to be Robin. ‘The Batman Problem’ has always stopped these two great powers from fully coalescing into a cohesive alliance. Yes, they share a … Continue reading Russia’s Ukraine war is China’s mixed blessing

The Tsar’s throne trembles – as the consequences of Putin’s war haunt Russia in the Caucasus

It is not too much to say that Vladimir Putin’s miscalculations over Ukraine have birthed a new era. At the strategic level, the Russian President is guilty of three seminal errors. First, his battle plan for invading Ukraine was far too byzantine – a fussy three-pronged assault that quickly bogged down partly as a result … Continue reading The Tsar’s throne trembles – as the consequences of Putin’s war haunt Russia in the Caucasus

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