July 2022 was the moment when the American mainstream media finally became completely unhinged, wholly untethered from reality, being exposed as nothing more than the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. The tipping point came over the media urging the American people not to believe what their lying eyes were seeing. US gross domestic product … Continue reading Nothing can save Democrats from midterm drubbing
Despite (or perhaps because of) the Conservative establishment having lined up squarely behind her opponent, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is in pole position to emerge as the new Tory leader and next prime minister of Great Britain. The only poll since the run-off began between these final two … Continue reading Truss bets on radicalism to save the Tories, and she’s right
As best I can tell, the American novelist W.E.B. Griffin popularized the phrase “walk between the raindrops” that means a person (or country) is not held accountable for nefarious actions. It is one of my favorite political risk quotes, since all too often in this mediocre age — and in defiance of how republics are … Continue reading Don’t let Venezuela walk between the raindrops
By far the biggest blight on my political risk industry is the notion of elite capture. As analysts and firms meet with success, becoming more famous and recognized, they are invited to the same gatherings as the political decision-makers they analyze. All too often, losing perspective, they soon become part of the elite that they … Continue reading Germany unprepared for new era due to Merkelism’s failures
One of my favorite “angry young man” books is former New York Times correspondent David Halberstam’s “The Best and the Brightest,” a devastating portrayal of the American elite who set in motion the tragedy of the Vietnam War. I once met the late writer, and he told me that the key to the story — … Continue reading How the global technocracy brought Sri Lanka to ruin￼
On the face of it, President Biden and outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson could not seem to be more different. The Oxford-educated Johnson, a former star journalist, has made a living due to his felicity with the English language, long an enemy of the syntax-mangling Biden. Whereas Biden is famously tribal and family-oriented — … Continue reading Boris Johnson’s fate awaits Joe Biden
In The Day of the Jackal, the gripping thriller in which the far-right paramilitary Organization Armée Secrète hires an assassin to shoot French President Charles de Gaulle, author Frederick Forsyth says of his English gentleman killer: “Like all men created by systems and procedures, he did not like the unpredictable and therefore the uncontrollable.” In … Continue reading The Day of the Narcissist: how Boris brought himself down
Russia and the West. The world food system is imperilled by sanctions which owe more to feeling good than doing good
True to form, the G7, meeting in Bavaria, have just concluded with another sanctions-fest. A majority of the advanced industrialized countries curtailed all Russian gold purchases and are examining a cap on the price of Russian oil. The previous sanctions on the Russian economy have led Moscow to default on its debt for the first … Continue reading Russia and the West. The world food system is imperilled by sanctions which owe more to feeling good than doing good
The Austrian psychoanalyst Theodor Reik put it best when he said that history never repeated itself, but it did often rhyme. This has become the unofficial mantra of my political risk firm. All of our competitors in the industry tend to assess the same three areas — macroeconomics, military strategy, and politics and geopolitics — … Continue reading Goodbye globalization, welcome to the new age of insecurity
As a historian, I have always found the end of Percy Shelley’s magnificent poem “Ozymandias” almost unbearably moving as it makes plain that even towering greatness has a finite shelf life. Shelley’s conclusion goes like this: “And on the pedestal, these words appear: ‘My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings; Look on my Works, ye … Continue reading France’s parliamentary election ruins Macron’s coronation
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