In my experience, the widely quoted adage about America’s capital — “You want a friend in Washington? Get a dog” — makes a fair point; imagine a city populated entirely by high school student council presidents. Nevertheless, in my glory days in D.C. I managed to buck the odds and acquire a number of great … Continue reading US Republicans challenge the foreign policy ‘blob’
The Ukraine war reaches its Gettysburg moment. Will we see a draft that could end Putin, or the disintegration of western unity?
The early 1900s baseball star (and sometime philosopher, they often go together) ‘Wee’ Willie Keeler put it perfectly – that the key to the sport is to ‘hit ‘em where they ain’t.’ The same simple, effective philosophy, to an even larger extent, explains Ukraine’s dramatic strategic offensive of last week to the northeast of the … Continue reading The Ukraine war reaches its Gettysburg moment. Will we see a draft that could end Putin, or the disintegration of western unity?
You always knew you had reached an intellectual dead end when foreign policy grandees sat around a table and recommended sanctions as an all-purpose answer to any problem. While such an initiative almost never practically worked in terms of changing the policy of the offending country, it made political sense in a Washington sort of … Continue reading A global food crisis could spell a bigger catastrophe than Vladimir Putin’s war
The presence of al Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, under the protection of the Taliban in a luxury villa in Kabul raises important questions about who is actually running the country and what this means for U.S. and allied interests. When U.S. forces killed al-Zawahiri on July 31, he was not just visiting Afghanistan’s capital city. He and … Continue reading A terror network’s struggle for influence in Afghanistan
Even though Her Royal Majesty Queen Elizabeth II was 96 when she died Thursday, I find the news almost impossible to comprehend. Growing up as a college, and then graduate, student at the University of St. Andrews, where Will and Kate met, I found the Queen was a living part of every day. Her picture was ubiquitous, … Continue reading After the Queen: Charles has a tough act to follow. His weaknesses will make it harder
In the spring of 1945, after towering over the American political landscape for a generation, Franklin Delano Roosevelt died suddenly at his retreat in Warm Springs, Georgia. At the time, Vice President Harry Truman was up on Capitol Hill, sharing a customary drink with the Congressional leadership at the end of a hard week (yes, … Continue reading Tough times ahead for Britain’s new PM
One of the things I have learned from my decades in the political risk business is that experts usually ignore the fact that specific people truly make policy. It is easy, and intellectually correct, to focus on the grand historical forces of analysis: to look at things like the global macroeconomic situation, the overall geopolitical … Continue reading Europe lacks a captain for its drifting ship of state
Climate analyst Bjorn Lomborg put it perfectly when he said: “Wishful thinking is not sound public policy.”The vast majority of political risk mistakes are made for this one simple reason; most analysts confuse what they would like to happen with what is likely to happen. This is a primary analytical lesson the in-the-tank leftist mainstream … Continue reading Why Biden’s mid-term ‘comeback’ is just wishful thinking
It is a remarkable, overlooked fact that Italy hasn’t governed itself in a democratic sense for quite some time. Incredibly, Silvio Berlusconi was the last prime minister who explicitly ran for the job at the head of a major political party, in 2008. Since then, Italy’s ramshackle governance has been a case study in the … Continue reading At last Italy is about to return to democratic government
July 2022 was the moment when the American mainstream media finally became completely unhinged, wholly untethered from reality, being exposed as nothing more than the propaganda arm of the Democratic Party. The tipping point came over the media urging the American people not to believe what their lying eyes were seeing. US gross domestic product … Continue reading Nothing can save Democrats from midterm drubbing
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