As the pioneering psychologist Carl Jung put it: “There is no birth of consciousness without pain.” Thus, lost in the jumble of the recent North Rhine-Westphalia regional election, clear, indelible patterns emerge that are likely to shape German politics for the next generation. It is hard to overstate how important NRW is to Germany as a whole, amounting to … Continue reading Germany’s bellwether regional election lays bare the coming post-Merkel political order￼
The brutal reality of political risk analysis is that you can never rest on your laurels. However good your predictive call record, there are always more elections to come and more geostrategic risks and opportunities to make sense of. Much as is true with sports, even winning a political risk analytical “championship” just means everyone … Continue reading The case for a Republican clean sweep in the 2022 midterms￼
Germany is a country I came to know well in the 10 years I lived there, in Berlin and Bavaria. Despite the many sterling virtues of its people, lodged deep in the German collective psyche is a characteristic that I cannot abide — schadenfreude. While not directly translatable into English, it is best thought of … Continue reading An unlikely defense of German foreign policy￼
As ever, French President Emmanuel Macron’s hero, Charles de Gaulle, put it perfectly. The imposing founder of the Fifth Republic caustically encapsulated the problem with ruling his perpetually turbulent nation when he said: “How can you govern a country that has 246 different kinds of cheese?” After the French parliamentary elections of June 12 and … Continue reading Macron and the French establishment are safe… for now￼
As Richard Adams, the author of the beloved children’s book Watership Down, put it: “Bunnies … are like human beings in many ways.” This quotation popped into my head last week during the latest bizarre episode in the increasingly bizarre presidency of Joe Biden. Fulfilling the ceremonial side of his job —the president is both … Continue reading Biden’s bizarre presidency limps toward electoral shellacking￼
There is little doubt that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s miscalculations have birthed a new world order. At the strategic level, the Russian President is guilty of three fatal strategic errors. First, his battle plan for invading Ukraine was far too byzantine, a fussy three-pronged assault that quickly bogged down partly as a result of this … Continue reading Putin’s mistakes birth a new world order
Crises clarify, and none more so than the tragedy of war. Wars sometimes directly change the geopolitical trajectory of the world. But they always, as a bolt of lightning illuminating the darkness, make clear the geostrategic landscape around us. Crises clarify, and none more so than the tragedy of war. Wars sometimes directly change the … Continue reading Putin’s war casts a bright, cold light on a new geopolitical era
There has always been one giant intellectual problem with a fully-fledged Sino-Russian revisionist alliance coming to challenge the present Western-dominated world; someone would have to be Batman and someone would have to be Robin. ‘The Batman Problem’ has always stopped these two great powers from fully coalescing into a cohesive alliance. Yes, they share a … Continue reading Russia’s Ukraine war is China’s mixed blessing
Introduction: Ideas are a very practical thing Too often in the modern world we separate ideas from the realm of everyday living, as if the things we were forced to learn in school have little bearing on life as it is actually lived. In the course of running a global political risk firm over the … Continue reading Why History Matters for 21st Century Liberty
The great Napoleon put it well when he said: “Death is nothing, but to live defeated and inglorious is to die daily.” By this bracing yardstick, the adrift presidency of Joe Biden is dying every day. Whether the issue is his failure to enact the whole of his ambitious domestic agenda, dangerous verbal gaffes over … Continue reading Scandal is a new danger to the Biden administration
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